1st 2 paragraphs 100% ... and we can rant and rave about but can...

1st 2 paragraphs 100% ... and we can rant and rave about but can do SFA about it.

So how does all this relate to SYA NOW ... and by NOW I mean this CY (for PLL) and this FY (Jul'24 - Jun'25) for SYA. And you may have read my post on PLL (no need to discuss). China has the collective West in a headlock as you say - I love the imagery - it takes me back many many years ... but the is a way to get out of the headlock and I believe the steps being taken by the USA is a terrific start. Just need to gutless Europeans and big talking Canadians to actually do something of scale.


Enough fun ...

I/you/we have said this many times
"So if my thesis is correct, we will not see a meaningful spod price correction until western refineries start coming online and start sucking quality concentrate away. What I am hoping is that a western refinery, once it comes online, will pay a premium for IRA spod (but what I fear is that they will, out of greed, try to peg to prevailing chinese pricing)."

And that is the problem. And I think you would have read me saying "one entity's revenue is another entity's expense". Supply/Demand and substitution. Which is why we need the IRA ... just like Sol said "oils aint oils" same for spodumene and we need to make location matter. And so it flows throught the supply chain. Take it up a notch or two from the refinery to the CAM and then Battery Cell maker. To level the playing field tariff the hell out of them ... wont affect TSLA USA ... batteries by Panasonic ... (but where did their lithium salt come from?)

This is where would digress a little (or a lot). Carbonate from brines in Chile for example would be IRA compliant .. well at least the 76% not owned by Tianqi which I believe still owns 24% (and when you add that to the 51% they own of Greenbushes I think they maybe the largest producer of Lithium globally). And just as Arcadium does that now with Carbonate it imports into the USA from it brines from Argentina they can produce lithium hydroxide much cheaper than SYA/PLL ever can (or they themselves from Whabouchi and James Bay hard rock projects).

So even with Western Refineries ... in USA and/or Quebec ... NAL is high cost ... (note I say NAL and not for example PLL CLP project or ALB with Kings mountain ... but neither of those is soon so it doesn't need further discussion).

But we will soon find out I believe. TSLA TX Lithium Refinery is going to be commissioned in the next 12 months says TSLA (H2'24 if we believe them). PLL's OTA is sending NAL SC there. Pricing for SC is based on Lithium Hydroxide Benchmark ... but which one (and reality is China has the only real benchmark price at present). What will TSLA be prepared to pay?

And then by extension, how much more will they want to buy ... well 50% of NAL is not under contract. TSLA has to be eyeing that surely. But TSLA is far from a charity ... and I do think that SYA may well be vulnerable here and I wont do the logical extension of that thought here (and it is not a stock takeover of SYA).

We'll see how this plays out ...