You may or may not be a pumper but the content of your post (nothing about the original was a pump - that was just information sharing and I gave you a like for that - and why I shared the transcript so posters could read what the presenter said about the slide) when you replied to me was IMO "pumping". When you overstate a company's RESOURCE by more than 50%, how should that be taken?
Now you've walked that back to what you should have said --- Hard Rock Resource in Canada --- well that was exactly what we were talking about and exactly why I responded. So what exactly was this mythical 200Mt of Resource you were referencing that takes their actual ~120Mt Resource and "lifts" it to 200Mt?? Nothing that I can see.
As an investor in SYA you would have read the Annual Report - yes? Page 126 - yes? And for more detail you would have read the updated MRE statements (released in the days prior to the Annual Report) - yes?
and those pesky modifying factors such as:
So in other words for that Resource to be this size stated SC6 needs to average US$1,850/t (what's that - about 250% more than present)
And I showed in earlier posts the long term estimates (past 2028) from 12 analysts for SC6 pricing and the median was US$1,400 (so ~US$1,260 SC5.4) and for the next 4 years (25 - 28) it was ~US$1,272 for SC6 (or ~US$1,145 for SC5.4).
The above "problem" is not unique to SYA (I am not picking on them) but it does "modify" perceived value - and that's where you really need to start thinking as an investor and how a corporate goes about acquiring interests in projects.
IMO your statement -
"If we have partners like Posco with deep pocket for NAL and Moblan, we don't need to raise too much money for CapEx and OpEx particularly in this lithium market condition with high interest rate" - will be chewed up and spat out.
Why? Let's pick the easy one first - Moblan - which has
"65.1 million tonnes @ 1.25% Li2O and account for 70% of the total resource, as such this provides a high level of certainty for conversion of Mineral Resources to Ore Reserves". No one really bothers with Inferred. And SYA's share of this 39Mt at 1.25% and when we convert that to LCE it's ~1.2Mt.
Now as an investor you need to think about the size of that compared with whatever else POSCO is doing (and I'd highlight especially their activities in Brine) and then whatever else is out there.
We're investors right? OK, well PLS acquired LRS (in Brazil) and the property has a MRE 67.3Mt classified into the JORC Measured +Indicated categories at 1.25% and converting to LCE it's ~2.04Mt. This is an all scrip acquisition and at the time of announcement it works out to be that PLS is paying ~AUD$0.20 per LRS share and with ~2.8B shares outstanding is ~$AUD560M. Now I'd have to make an adjustment for Cash held by LRS and also that PLS share price has increased since acquisition annoucement and convert to US$ but overall its going to be about US$370M
So that magic number is PLS paid ~US$181M per million metric tonnes of LCE
Translation? Moblan at 100% is 2.1Mt of LCE ... roughly equal to LRS ... so 100% of Moblan is US$370M ... based on the PLS/LRS transaction.
SYA has 60% ... US$222M
IQ has 40% ... US$148M
Or is it??? Well now this is where you have to read the fine print. For LRS and their MRE we have this aspect to think about
I believe that is SC 5.5 since their
"mining plans for Phase 1 production commencing in 2026 with Phase 2 average production of 525,000tpa SC5.5".What does that do the MRE estimate for Moblan. The price used in Moblan MRE is >33% higher than the price used by LRS. That might increase LRS MRE by 50% ... say its now 3Mt LCE ... which brings valuation down to about US$125M per 1Mt LCE, and just like that SYA's 60% of Moblan is now valued at ~US$160M.
That's what doing basic MRE analysis tells you as an INVESTOR. And I may not know much about POSCO but I do know 2 things:
1. POSCO will know how to do how to value assets - lithium or otherwise. And it would be far more detailed that what I've just run the ruler over.
2. POSCO is also listed on the NYSE. If you think that you
"have more access to information about Korean EV battery companies and battery components companies announced in South Korea" you might be surprised what POSCO files with the SEC.
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/ciks=0000889132&entityName=POSCO%2520HOLDINGS%2520INC.%2520(PKX)%2520(CIK%25200000889132)So all the above is simply to say, yes they have deep pockets ...so what. POSCO has shareholders too and they wont want to overpay. They will look for value. That capital wont come to SYA for free. Either POSCO buys equity in SYA (so a "strategic cornerstone investment" - non retail capital raising) or it buys equity in SYA's assets (e.g. it could buy 50% of SYA's 60% and 50% of IQ's 40% and end up with 50% of Moblan). The less of an asset SYA own's the less capital it is required to invest into it.
As an investor, have you given any consideration as to what SYA's 60% of Moblan is worth? And what backs that valution up?
(20min delay)