$10USD is realistic for offshore Africa in that the valuation is...

$10USD is realistic for offshore Africa in that the valuation is not based on now but on factors in years ahead, so you need to be on top of such things as predicted oil supply and demand, and the impact that has on in ground value. I think @Callsign30 has presented a logical construction of a possible share price based on what we know about the Saturn complex now, which is not to say the potential share price is 100% correct but the process of deriving it is logical. I would say though if the discovery is light oil this would impact positively on the recovery rate, and then you could see that $10USD estimate increase perhaps as much as another $10USD to $20USD. And lets not forget that there could also be gas.