A well respected local bond fundy made a case that a 100 basis points rise in rates will cause a 20% fall in RE. During the pandemic, he accurately predicted although not the size of current RE rise, that the consensus speculation of the RE crash was wrong. He has a pretty accurate case for his prediction going back decades. As Schiff constantly said that America is addicted to debt, it is the size and rate of pandemic QE that probably makes it that much harder to dial back with the ongoing supply chain disruption (transitory inflation def by a famous chair) when compared to Bernanke/Yellen tapering/QT.
'Feds got your back' or BTFD again remains the cycle in the latest US equity sell off that has once again recovered to make another ATH! Unfortunately I was influenced by the noise and not well educated in the US markets enough although my exposure locally have been broad but one just never be sure with march 2020 still fresh in my mind.
I was very surprised by the move in gold at the close, didn't expect from those figures but was anticipating from a TA perspective this week. We now have a daily together with a 6 months wedge breakout. Anyone with any charting knowledge could see $1835 and the 2 school of thoughts dictates that a well tested resistance is either a strong or a weak one. I take the view that on each occasion of a test with price momentum breaking previous trough, this would suggest the resistance is STRONG. However the current price action suggests that the higher lows (3 of them) makes the bear stops build up above $1835 even larger to a vulnerable attack!
I still see the reverse correlation of gold to Bitcoin and Betashares have this week created a cypto etf traded over the ASX. No harm in looking for exposure to digi-gold and this etf on closer study of its exposure includes a good spread of miners and generally tech associated firms. Something that will suit me in time as like gold, I am more interested in the mining side of things.
On Monday, we need to see a good FOMO in the gold sector!
