greater sunrise deal prior to 23 feb, 2013, page-34

Whilst I agree that TS is an attractive option for Sunrise both fiscally and possibly as a Political compromise. I wouldn't jump the gun and purchase MEO on that basis. Fact is we won't know until there is a done deal. I may suspect it a possibility if WPL and Timor end up in protracted talks.

Otherwise WPL seem to favour Shell's (4mmt) FLNG design.

One fact is, we are likely to see some sort of movement on Sunrise this year, whether that be an agreement, or International Court Case. Timor have also threatened to pull out. Which quite frankly I find ridiculous, especially as they have been dipping into their Petroleum Fund for other projects in Timor-Leste (in short, they need the revenue). Initially a Court Case at face value would also appear to be a negative for Timor based on precedent law of it being on the Australian Continental Shelf.

However on present probabilities of ENI (ES) heading to TS, I find quite high for three reasons.

1) - it is eminently fiscally viable.
2) - The hubs can be built OS and shipped there at far less cost than a FLNG.
3) - also importantly the addition of the methane plant also helps offset any 23% Carbon Tax and turns a liability into an asset.

We can also infer that an additional Methane plant with Sunrise may also help offset the hefty tax in the future.

IMO the ridiculously high Carbon Tax has added to the value concept of MEO's Tassie Shoal (who'd of thought?). Which I'm sure the respective number crunches would take into account when doing their figures.

Any thoughts?