Hang in there!!, page-153

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Cuprum29

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29/04/24

19:33

Post #: 73566526
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Originally posted by PigRace: ↑

I would be a bit more cautious regarding a potential CR.

On page 10 (slide 14) in the latest HY report per Dec 31, 2023 it says:
Opthea believes that it will be able to fund its operating and research and development expenses through at least the third calendar quarter of 2024. As such, Opthea expects to raise additional external funding, including through equity financing, prior to its reporting of top-line data for its Phase 3 clinical trials.

US$157M cash on hand per Dec 31, 2023 compare to a cash burn during H2 2023 of US$75M. So technically, OPT is financed more or less through YE 2024.

Yet, when OPT will file its AR for FY2024 (by Aug 31, 2024 at the latest) they will have to provide sufficient cash ressources for the 12 months post the issuance of the financial statement in order to fulfill the going concern requirements.

At constant burn rate of US$75M per HY, showing sufficient cash ressources through Aug 31, 2025 would require a minimum cash inflow of net US$100M. To be secured by Aug 31, 2024 at the latest.

Worst would be the issuance of 333M new shares at 50ct ($165M gross = $155M net = US$100M net), meaning a 33% dilution just to make it to top-line data mid 2025.

Best would be an ex-US/CA/AU/NZ partnership for US300M upfront and a 20% royalty rate, giving away roughly 1/3 of sozinibercept‘s value in exchange for being financed through the entirety of:
- top-line data in Jul 2025*,
- filing in Nov 2025*,
- approval in July 2026*,
- launch in Aug 2026* and
- profitability by YE 2026
(* = real world timeline of faricimab put over sozinibercept)

Super hard to tell which way OPT will go.

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If OPT only have 4 months (until 31-Aug) to get the $100 mil cash in the bank, do we know if any partnership talks are underway?
Otherwise a CR at 50c seems all but certain in the coming months.

OPT Price at posting: 64.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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