Hartleys Forecasts, page-20

Because of the peculiarities of the inventory accounting method CWP uses (the only other developer that ignores capital appreciation is VLW), despite superficial analysis saying that CWP trades at a premium to NTA, this premium is justified given the unbanked capital appreciation that is hidden on the balance sheet. The sentiment about the housing market has caused the current drop in SP, despite the fact that a significant proportion of the next few years' revenue is from Perth (where the market has bottomed), Adelaide (where the market never rose), Brisbane (which has demographic tailwinds) and protected pockets of Melbourne.

Historically, the returns of CWP can be predicted by looking at the price/NTA ratio. By my reckoning this HY report the ratio will be close to 1.
Historically, this ratio was 0.89 in 2009 (share price was 1.42) and 12 month return was 73% (+ dividends) and 1.12 in 2016 (share price was 4.35) and 12 month return was 20% (+ dividends). Whilst I can't predict what will happen with the share price with any accuracy whatsoever, this is one of my sleep-easy investments, and I look forward to improving metrics with higher debt in this part of the cycle and of course the first year in a series of dividend upgrades (hopefully!).

My full spreadsheet below FYI. 

	30/06/2006	30/06/2007	30/06/2008	30/06/2009	30/06/2010	30/06/2011	30/06/2012	30/06/2013	30/06/2014	30/06/2015	30/06/2016	30/06/2017	30/06/2018
Revenue	80.5	90	81.9	107	108.4	131.8	170.5	172.8	214.5	178.6	175	222.3	239.7
Cash receipts	87.8	98.7	78.3	119.3	119.4	143.8	184.3	186.1	231.6	194	190.1	239.7	265.1
Net operating cashflow	5.2	-14.9	-7.6	33.1	17.8	-7	33.2	-14.8	-1.8	8.5	4.3	0.6	-6.55
Cash/revenue	109%	110%	96%	111%	110%	109%	108%	108%	108%	109%	109%	108%	111%
EBIT	25.9	31.3	31.2	17	26.8	41.5	53.1	53	56.2	61.2	65.6	67.4	65.1
Finance cost	2.8	4.5	2.2	3.4	2	1.2	3.8	1.6	0.6	3.4	3.8	2.9	4
Operating profit before tax	23.1	26.8	29	13.5	24.7	40.2	49.3	51.4	55.6	57.8	61.8	64.5	61.1
Tax	6.9	8.2	8.5	4.3	7.5	12.2	15	15.1	15.3	15.2	18.2	19.1	18.6
NPAT	16.2	18.6	20.5	9.2	17.2	28	34.3	36.3	40.3	42.6	43.6	45.4	42.6
Net margin	20%	21%	25%	9%	16%	21%	20%	21%	19%	24%	25%	20%	18%
Current inventories	37.3	39	40.9	44.6	36.7	46.6	63.5	76	81	59	55.6	95.1	183.1
Non-current inventories	135.7	104.3	121.9	103.4	148.1	155.8	144.8	175	250	251	311.5	327	314.7
Total inventories	173	143.3	162.8	148	184.8	202.4	208.3	251	331	310	367.1	422.1	497.8
Rev/last inventories		52%	57%	66%	73%	71%	84%	83%	85%	54%	56%	61%	57%
Rev/current inventories		241%	210%	262%	243%	283%	269%	272%	282%	220%	297%	400%	252%
Total assets	196.4	155.6	185	162.7	205.7	233.6	238.3	301	409.9	383.3	453	505.6	601.5
Total liabilities	127.9	83.9	101	69.4	96.9	104	53.7	93.3	148.3	97.7	145.5	175.4	248.3
Equity	68.5	71.7	84	93.3	108.8	129.5	184.6	207.7	261.6	285.6	307.2	330.2	353.2
Shares on issue	54.5	54.8	55.1	58.2	60.6	61.8	72.2	73.4	78.3	78.9	78.9	78.9	79.5
Share price	4.48	5.22	2.75	1.42	2.45	4	3.56	5.17	7.31	5.26	4.35	5.2	6.2
Market cap	244.2	286.1	151.5	82.6	148.5	247.2	257.0	379.5	572.4	415.0	343.2	410.3	492.9
Price/NTA	4.04	3.98	1.81	0.89	1.36	1.90	1.37	1.83	2.19	1.45	1.12	1.24	1.40
EPS	29.7	33.9	37.2	15.8	28.4	45.3	47.5	49.5	51.5	54.0	55.3	57.5	53.6
DPS	15	17	18	7	13	23	25	26	20	28	28.5	30	30
EBIT margin	32.2	34.8	38.1	15.9	24.7	31.5	31.1	30.7	26.2	34.3	37.5	30.3	27.2
ROE	24	26	24	10	16	22	19	17	15	15	14	14	12
NTA	1.11	1.31	1.52	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.6	2.83	3.34	3.62	3.89	4.19	4.44
Change NTA		18%	16%	5%	13%	17%	24%	9%	18%	8%	7%	8%	6%
Net debt	-29	-63.7	-80.6	-47.9	-39.7	-55	-3.8	-37.8	-32.6	-27.9	-52	-87.3	-132.8
Debt/equity	42.3	88.8	96.0	51.3	36.5	42.5	2.1	18.2	12.5	9.8	16.9	26.4	37.6