Hi Rooster,
I don't follow this stock, so I am not aware of what they do, or what may have been happening in its market.
(I always find it helpful to gain a deeper understanding of the stock when I get involved, so I can better understand the chart)
The trading action looks a bit 'nice' to my eye, not particularly volatile or uncompromising. So I guess this is not a 'trading stock' (so to speak), and contains more longer term traders and maybe fund managers etc. If so, in these types of stocks price is not 'driven' so hard for profit, and 'mark ups' occur more fundamentally when they are broadly justified.
For the most part I like your like your analysis, and your way of thinking.
To some extent you need to interpret the trading in your own way, and I can see that is what you are doing.
Do you keep an eye on the Weekly chart ??
It gives a much better 'overall' view of the trading, without so much of the 'noise' the daily chart usually displays, and the weekly has so much more 'power or strength' in each bar, that is because there is so much more 'information' (trading) in each bar. For instance a 5min bar has very little information in it, so while it may display some indication of serious strength or weakness. That strength or weakness will only last for a short time (usually 2-3 bars into the future, so on a 5min chart, a strong indication will only project 10-15mins into the future, and would need ongoing indications on the chart for the strength or weakness to continue. Whereas a weekly chart has 5 days of information within it, and just the same a serious indication can project up to 2-3 bars into the future, which is two to three weeks - a lot !!). So always look at the weekly chart and understand what it is saying. It won't show so as much detail, but once understood you can change to the daily for the finer detail.
The CLV Weekly chart does not show any obvious signs of a 'proper' distribution. There is no obvious high volume widespread upbar that fails to follow through, and/or a subsequent sideways action with high volume spikes. The CLV weekly volumes overall continue to reduce. So for me it does not show any signs of a coordinated and engineered distribution event. But that does not mean some holder or holders, have recently chosen to lighten their load and sell some, or that some supply has been drawn out for whatever reason.
Without having a deeper knowledge of the stock, to me eye, it looks like a 'buy the offer' event may have taken place in mid March (arrowed below). If this is correct, it also seems unlikely that a big sell off would begin to take place so soon after, as a but the offer event is usually done as a form of accumulation, although it could be a way to absorb stock at a resistance level if required. Both are fairly rare though, or are certainly not really common.
Anyway for me, it would take a pretty big change in sentiment if there was strong buying back in mid March, and now they are selling it.
I mean it
could happen for sure, just that a change like that is not expected, and if it did happen, there would generally be a large initial dump of the stock, signified by a widespread down bar on high volume. This has not happened either.
I should also say that I generally look for simple answers first, and more serious answers only when the chart shows that something dramatic has happened (usually like a wide spread bar and/or a high volume event of some sort), or if the chart is just not making sense.
The last four weeks on the CLV chart (the last month) have seen relatively low and reducing volumes on sideways trading, so for me this may reflect some form of uncertainty in the stock itself, and/or the markets generally. For me, that is the most simple answer.
Another (simple) possibility is that another period of consolidation may be about to take place, similar to the one marked on the chart below. Whenever price make decent gains it will often draw out some increased supply, and this supply needs to be absorbed. This absorption take place during a period of consolidation.
Remember it is not uncommon for the analyst to be unsure of what exactly may be happening at some point in time, especially on smaller timeframes (with excess noise), it will usually become clear again fairly quickly. So during these times be aware of the important levels and just make sure these don't get clearly broken.
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I generally like to have an understanding of where a line in the sand maybe, particularly in situations of uncertainty.
The 'line in the sand' depicts an important level, which if clearly broken may suggest a change in sentiment or influence (trend) could take place.
A line in the sand is much more important in shorter term trading than longer term trading.
For the downside, I like to mark the lows of widespread higher volume upbars as a line in the sand, as for me, they show where the market chose to strongly buy up or provide support to the stock.
On the CLV weekly chart I marked the current lines in the sand (below).
There are two recent ones since the possible buy the offer combination. One at 2.04 and then another at 2.13
If those levels are clearly broken, I would be looking to change or review my analysis.
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So I think you can see what I am doing.
I am trying to build up a broader overall understanding of the story that the chart is saying about itself.
Or at least a possible story, because I sometimes get it wrong (everyone does at some point), and I have to quickly adjust or change my analysis.
Once you have a reasonable understanding of the weekly chart, you can switch to the daily or intraday chart for some more detailed analysis.
A smaller timeframe is also better to look for more accurate support or resistance levels, and for tighter entries and exits.
View attachment 1573339So finally for me, there is either some uncertainty which has currently stalled the recent price movement, or that a second period of consolidation may be beginning (similar to the one I marked of the first weekly chart - above).
I would of course be prepared to change my analysis if the subsequent trading changes into the future.
(always be prepared to change if the trading does not continue to confirm what you expect if happening)
Hopefully that helps to some extent.
cheers
(20min delay)