CW,So you think BHP could see $35 again before year end? What do...

CW,

So you think BHP could see $35 again before year end? What do you base that on??

I'm a trader of 6 years and even though I consider myself quite level headed in times of turmoil the last month has really shaken me! Ever since the first sub prime fears I've been reading as many "expert" opinions as I could get my hands on, doing the obligatory tech analysis (which made BHP and most other stocks look like shorting heaven) and also taking heed of a number of opinions on HC. You in particular have always had very rational posts with a sound trading strategy. Over the last 1.5 months tho, for every opinion i read on doomsday I read another claiming the power of Asia will overcome all OR the big boys have got too much riding for the fed not to do something. I dare say many of us traders have been EXTREMELY surprised at the speed of recovery and indeed renewed confidance.....the bulls are going to town and that sentiment is now reflected in posts across HC. So is this "instantaneous recovery" madness or a reflection that the world over reacted to Sub Prime in the first place. Obviously the fed IR cut has had a huge impact....we wouldn't have breached the $40 mark suit so confidantly or quickly without it....

Which now probably leaves us all pondering the inevitable question....what next. Will greed take us up to the next lebvels of support or will a new wave or fear bring things back down a bit....

So back to my first point....based purely on logic....what do you base a fall to $35 levels on?? My thoughts:

- Fed could cut interest rates further - SP UP
- BHP IO contracts look set for solid increase - SP UP
- Possible overheat in market and correction (recovery WAY to quick for my liking) - SP DOWN
- Oil at all time highs. can it stay this way? SP?
- Chip on his way out. Anyway feeling sentimental? SP?
- New housing data in US shows further decline or issues - SP DOWN

I could go on but to me nothing really stands out in my mind that could cause anything more than minor movement of $2 up or down from current SP. With the kind of volatility we've all witnessed though who really knows....thats the hard bit??

Any thoughts?? Could anything in the near future cause the levels of "fear" we saw/felt a month ago?

I sold all my BHP out at the $37-38.50 mark 2 weeks ago (I had a sizable portfolio) when at the time I couldn't seen any real reason for the quick recovery other than sniff of IR cut and great final year report from BHP. I certainly didn't think the rise would keep going!!!

So now as I sit on the fence (possibly like a lot of people) with wads of cash at the ready I am a bit dumbstruck. Don't want to miss the next upturn if it's due (or possibly already starting after Fed kick start).....but commonsense says what goes up this quick must come down....at least a bit?!

What to do, what to do, what to do......