I'm Out, so SPL should rocket higher, page-21

As nobody else seems to have an entry price in mind, here are my thoughts from the sidelines.

I've been in and out a few times, after losing quite a lot initially because I thought that SPL was a great investment. Nowadays, I regard SPL as a high-risk-low-reward play. I no longer regard SPL as an investment-grade stock. I think that the more time that passes without profits, the less likely that there will ever be profits. However, I think that maybe SPL is occasionally worth a swing trade gamble.



Looking at the short term, SPL's SP is currently perched above a technical support line at 50 cents. There is a stronger technical support line at 43 cents. Both of these support lines are descending.

I am wondering whether to buy back in atm because of the current buy signal from the 50 cent technical support line. And also because the BOD might be under pressure to deliver some positive announcements, at least until the AGM.

Maybe I will wait to see if the 50 cent support breaks, perhaps offering the possibility of then buying in at the 43 cent support level if it holds.



Looking at the longer term, there are around 409 million shares and over $40m in cash, so the current cash liquidation value of each share is about 10 cents. There would also be an IP value of a debatable amount that perhaps another pharma might be willing to pay.

I would not be surprised if the SP does eventually go below 10 cents in the long term. This could happen slowly over a few years while SPL gradually burns through its cash, or it could happen more quickly if the market thinks that SPL will never ever become profitable.



All just my opinions and, as some have repeatedly pointed out, SPL appears to have considerable potential - so who knows what the future really holds. sarge17 is certainly right that it is a "much safer proposition" to wait until after a really good announcement before buying, but with SPL's track record of disappointments I think that "less risky" are more subtly appropriate words than "safer".