I picked a good time to be away for 7 weeks. I picked an even better time to come back and start looking at the charts for IMU again.
For what it's worth, which isn't much when giving commentary on the past, this recent down leg from the highs was not outside of the scope of the technical picture the charts gave when I left. When I say that nothing has changed for me in the present, no doubt there will be those who scoff, however this will largely be the disconnect between their shorter term view and my longer term analysis. For others who have closely followed my commentary, while the swing down may have come as a disappointment it likely didn't come as a surprise. I can say this with confidence for both Fundamental and Technical reasons.
Fundamentally I recall commenting on how the macro scene could potentially be undergoing a change that would effect the IMU landscape, in the form of a new covid variant omicron, and combined with the standard Christmas selling we were likely to see some downward pressure. And then a little while later PH cashed in some chips. It's my view that of those 3 fundamental aspects, the uncertainty around omicron has had the greatest effect on the share price. PH selling likely contributed, but I'm confident enough to suggest that had he not sold we would likely be at similar levels anyway.
Technically this move was not out of order. Just about every single analysis I have given has included key triggers we need prior to moving up to the next leg, that being the break and bounce. Without the bounce to validate a broken resistance as a new support then any move higher is going to be difficult to hold. This can be seen on any chart and timeframe. It must be stated that the bounce needs to be relative to the timeframe. For example, if you have just broken a key level on a daily chart don't be looking for a bounce on the 5min chart, you want to see a bounce at least a few bars(days in this case) later. So far, we have not validated the old 0.495 level. When we broke through it I recall hoping to see a bounce off it the following week (or longer) but we only got to around 0.51(?) quite quickly before heading into the 0.60s. When we eventually got back to 0.495 it didn't hold/bounce and so technically this was ready for a proper pull back. We got it. So what does this mean now?
We come back to 'nothing has changed for me technically' in a material way. Fundamentals have added exceptional strength, but technically we are just further along the path of the same picture. Our key fib is still in play. Our primary target is still 0.74(which lines up nicely with the recent US$0.50 target) with an interim target of 0.65 zone. Over the last couple of years, along the way I've suggested buy entries that I would take. Those who followed along know how they turned out. It's my opinion that we are at another good opportunity for entry. Manage your own risk and keep in mind I don't do short term. Let's look at the charts
MonthlyThis chart shows pretty clearly shows what matters - the key long term fib. IMU is a long play. It's a biotech, on the asx. We've had many several month long consolidations and breathers. If you are invested here like myself and many others, including the international smart money/big fish then these longer term chart pictures should give you much confidence along with the ever strengthening Fundamental picture. Ignore the muppets and the noise, IMU hasn't put a foot wrong.
We dropped our A point at the 4month long consolidation low of 0.092 and our B at the end of the run -the 0.495 high. C came in at the perfect 50%-61.8% zone giving us our D1 target of 0.74. As always and stated many times, we need to see not just a break of the 0.00%(0.495) but a retest(bounce) off it to validate it as the new support. Once this happens we
are heading for 0.74. As happens more often than not, the first retest of a newly broken critical resistance level(0.495) failed. This happens on all time frames and has been shown in analysis many times on smaller time frames. We've pulled back to the 38.2% fib now and the bear look exhausted. Anyone wanting a significantly lower entry(>50.0% fib) will likely be watching the price run away from them. Just a small point to note, we aren't looking for a bounce off 0.495 on the monthly chart with several months between, this just gives us a good overview. The strength of support with the 50% and the yellow e21 here is the strongest support IMU has. Without a significant Fundamental change it is rock solid. moving up from here gives us a very heavy higher low.
WeeklyBetter chart to look at, it shows the fib we are watching in more detail. It also shows some decent bullish divergence forming this week. At point 1(yellow), we see this was not the retest of 0.495 we want to see. It certainly tried, but the following candles failed to make a higher high. We have now bounced off a strong support level, the 50.0% fib coupled with the cyan e55 at point 2. The 3 larger ema's are still positive sloped and the yellow e21 and green w5 are both starting to flatten out. I'll be a monkeys uncle if this isn't the bottom.
DailyTwin bullish divergence here. Green w5 has turned upwards. EMA method is giving an entry of medium strength. if the cyan e55 dips under the blue e100 (likely) this changes to above average strength. Looking for the w5 to rise and the other ema's to flatten out and turn to positive slope. This is one of the few times I'm prepared to call an entry I'd be happy to take. Disclaimer: I'm not, I have my position. This is a long term entry, not a trade entry. Traders would have been in a few days ago at the first signs of bouncing off the fib zone. My stoploss would be a soft stop around 0.33 and a hard stop around 0.275. Target is 0.74. Early bailout would be a daily close that turns down the green daily w5. This could happen a couple of times so limiting losses will more than make up for it when it goes. I would suggest that our next break into the 50's will give us the retest we went to validate the 0.495 as a legitimate support, and then we can finally move on wards.
I'll update from time to time as needed, but for now, really nothing has changed. We are ready to start our second attempt at breaking 0.495. Time plays its own games here.
(20min delay)