Thanks for sharing Emptytrolly. I thought it was interesting...

Thanks for sharing Emptytrolly.

I thought it was interesting that he keeps referring to announcements he can't make because they are a listed company.. be curious to know what is brewing. They should have potentially $130m ($200m financial credit they are seeking, with $70m allocated to existing projects) for new investments. But, they don't really have the cash flow to fund that debt at this point.. FY23 or more likely FY25 where they could actually look to build more in that pipeline via debt-financed CAPEX. Meanwhile, it does take a while for planning / FID, so could just be very early stage announcement.

If I had to muse, I'd be thinking something along the lines of municipal waste, possibly from inner Melbourne where they have tried before, and then processed into biomethane for the East Coast building on their new partnership. Dunno, really just speculating, but that seems to be their interest and direction.

In terms of valuation, personally I think 20-25c is a pretty fair trading range considering the risk. I too would love to guarantee that this company is worth 40c and that it will be a $1 - but that's just not realistic with the amount of risk that remains going forward. We have already seen a significant miss on the FY21 results vs the prospectus (much of it is explainable, sure). Any more delays, any increase in the weighted average cost of capital, any reductions in potential returns of their investments - all of these risks are real, and particularly heightened until FY23 when the new assets come online. However, a new announcement may be catalyst for a small re-rating.