given what might be a difficult Monday for CNJ, as well as perhaps for most of the week, I thought some readers of this forum might like to hear my thoughts on the direction of the SP over this coming week (the SP is of course always the "litmus test" for investor sentiment i.e. the perceived future value of a company's projects as well as the overall future if the company itself).
Clearly, and as it always is, it will be the extreme differences in investor sentiment which will dominate trading on Monday, and probably for most of this week, which will in turn lead to extreme SP volatility.
Before I continue, it should be pointed out that investor sentiment is very personal and very emotional.
IMHO, the major feature of this week's trading will be the fight between the following two groups:
Group 1 (the "sellers"). Investors who are quite simply "pissed-off" about the two mistakes that CNJ made last week with regard to the misreporting of the two intervals of sulphide mineralisation, which has now caused them to lose faith in CNJ as a company (understandable). My only comment here is that this was extemely sloppy reporting and very unprofessional. Nothing more, nothing less.
Group 2 (the "buyers"). Investors who, despite last week's two mistakes, see that the CNJ's announcement provides clear evidence that the Callisto discovery does indeed extends well into the MTJV tenement, with potentially excellent PGE/Nickel/Copper grades, and that this mineralisation extends in all directions.
On the above basis, it is fairly obvious that Group 1 (the "sellers") will be heading for the exits, and probably from the opening bell on Monday morning, whereas Group 2 (the "buyers"), will see a lower SP as a very good buying opportunity. Quite simply, the direction of the SP will be determined by how many investors are in each group.
Hence, from the opening bell on Monday, I believe that will have a real "tug of war" between these two groups, which will mean high trading volumes and extreme SP volatility from the get go.
Before I move onto my personal interpetation, of the current situation, I see Group 1 investors making "emotional based" decisions, and Group 2 making "factually based" decisions. This, however, is not to say which one is right and which one is wrong.
Given this uncertain situation, the SP could close up or down 10% on Monday. Sorry folks, I really have no idea.
For me personall, the bottom line is as follows:
Despite CNJ's extemely sloppy reporting last week, the "preliminary" results from the first 5 holes at the MTJV still remain highly encouraging.
The upcoming "official" assay results from MTJV001, as well as from all of the subsequent holes that have been drillied so far, should all be very good (in particular the upcoming "official" assay results from MTRC017D, which has already been successfully completed and which was drilled directly adjacent to the historical drill hole MTDD0008!).
Given that from this week onwards, GSR and CNJ will now be concentrating their drilling efforts on areas further to the south and to the east of MTRC017D, potentially, we may see even better "preliminary" results, than those "preliminary" results that have been released so far by GSR & CNJ.
In this regard, I am particularly looking forward to the "preliminary" results from MTRC017D, which could be announced late this week.
I would also add, that given last week's statement that Phase 2 drilling will now be accelerated, IMHO, this is a very clear sign that, based on their "preliminary" results from the first 5 holes, CNJ & GSR are extremely confident that they are onto a major PGE/Nickel/Copper discovery.
Based on these excellent "preliminary" results, as well as from the general opinion (from what I have learned so far on HC and from Geos who I know) I also share CNJ's & GSR's confidence.
Finally, IMHO, not even CNJ's (and GSR's!) poor attention to reporting detail, will change the results of the current drilling program i.e. there is either a major PGE/Nickel/Copper discovery within the MTJV tenement or there is not. End of story! In fact, it is probably the drilling crew and the assay lab who will together be determining whether CNJ and GSR have major a major PGE/Nickel/Copper discovery on their hands or not i.e. it is extremely unllikely that even CNJ and GSR could screw this up.
Wishing you all good nerves during what will not doubt be a very challenging week for all investors (whichever group you belong to).
Cheers!
CNJ Price at posting:
4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)