ADN 12.5% 0.7¢ andromeda metals limited

i don't think so.. the bigger the ratio of ADN to MEP actually...

  1. 6,437 Posts.
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    i don't think so..

    the bigger the ratio of ADN to MEP actually de values ADN and therefore compromises the ability of your freshly minted ADN shares to appreciate

    ADN paid $6M for the first 75% .. $108M Eq for the last 25% that's a total of $114M .. in theory

    They generated a MC of over $500M off the back of that original 75% and $6M earn in.. and in the process increased MEP MC from probably $10M up to at point of T/O $65M

    MEP were obviously of the opinion that if they spend the capex play the game and stay as JV partner they could eventually be looking at being a revenue generating Co with a MC of maybe + $250M .. or.. .get some of that future value now, on paper and link the future wealth of MEP shareholders to the fortunes of ADN.

    I have long argued that MEP current MC should be around $100M on an arbitrage basis.. the argument about HPA, etc etc distracted a lot of people who believed MEP was excluded from future value add ons and this was the key for me and the reason I kept holding my MEP for dear life because I knew they were wrong.. furthermore, JM, ADN knew it.. so matter what they said, excluding MEP from future gains would mean expensive and complicated 'seperate' capex, 'seperate' feed and 'seperate' entities etc etc..

    So, does that then mean that ADN should have paid more for MEP simply because they were 'not' excluded from future add ons and in fact stood to benefit ? No, it means that the justification for paying a reasonable premium now (on paper mind you because it is scrip) can balance the argument against dilution

    To offer 1.5 ADN would have tipped the balance towards the argument against dilution and IMHO had the reverse effect of potentially capsizing the ADN share price which we all know in a scrip offer is exactly what we don't want to happen.. ADN now shoulder capex and opex at 100% so I think it is fair to imagine a T/O premium (in my mind $150M was the mark ) less, the potential capex load of phase 1 and 2 ( let's say 25% = $50M ) and strike a happy medium.. that is how T/O works .. to the benefit of both parties and imho this certainly is

    IMHO it is a perfectly executed ( still not complete ) corporate manouvere and strikes the right balance for both MEP and ADN shareholders

    IMHO the gain that you may see as not being realised by the difference between 1.15 and 1.5 ADN is immaterial compared the gains you are now exposed to with the ownership of ADN shares.





 
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