James Marsh - MD Interviews, page-20

First 20 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Tcb007

20,486 Posts.

2682

27/09/20

00:03

Post #: 47654336
Share
Originally posted by wombat777 ↑

When I do a new sum of the parts valuation I will come up with something along the lines of the below ( which is very speculative ).

Assumptions:

High quality of ADN's feedstock allows lower OPEX (so this is factored into assumption 3 below).

Price based on FYI DFS estimate for 4N at USD $24,000/t.

ASIC based on a JV/tolling arrangement so using USD $12,000/t instead of ~ USD $6,000 per tonne in FYI DFS.

ADN gets 75% share of EBITDA.

Share Issue 2.6B ( assumes that cashflow from Great White allows dilution to be kept to a minimum )

Cashflow from Great White's Premium Refined Kaolin business and Halloysite business allows them to use traditional debt funding rather than other dilutive approaches.

Business starts in ~ 2026.

Here's the results for 4,000 tpa, 8,000 tpa and 12,000 tpa. Result is ~ $40M to ~ $120M added to net profit depending on annual tonnage.

View attachment 2514872

So that's just one possible scenario above - ADN pays a tolling fee to a processor and then gets a 75% share of remaining margin.

That's what it might be worth in production. Could add up $30M to $100M after tax on scenarios above.

A sum-of the parts value would include HPA as a risk-adjusted component of the above in an overall valuation.

They have said much recently about HPA, other than they are sourcing partners so there could be a surprise announcement at any time.

One big advantage ADN has is the size of their deposits so gives them a lot of potential to scale beyond production allocated to HPA beyond capacities above.

Expand

Great work @wombat777 - as per todays article, there's strong demand for USD$30,000t

https://goldinvest.de/greenmining/1...-director-kauft-eigene-aktie-nach-verdopplung
ADN Price at posting: 15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

88E

HotCopper users smell capital raising as 88 Energy says "significant update" at Phoenix

PAR

FDA hands Paradigm Biopharma guidance to re-jig phase 3 osteo trial – or is it a delay?

CXU

Cauldron discovers shallow uranium up to 2km at WA's Yanrey

BPM

BPM Minerals hits high-grade gold at the Claw Project WA; shares jump 86%

HVN

Harvey Norman clocks subdued gains as Echo Law's junk warranty class action kicks off

There are more pages in this discussion • 569 more messages in this thread...

First 20 Last

Add ADN (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 0.8¢		Change 0.001(7.14%)		Mkt cap ! $25.45M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.7¢	0.8¢	0.7¢	$6.518K	908.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
38	18776533	0.7¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.8¢	11522524	20

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
38	18776533	0.007
56	19846945	0.006
33	16133693	0.005
10	10825000	0.004
7	11448333	0.003

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.008	11522524	20
0.009	16572544	18
0.010	8977806	12
0.011	14387431	7
0.012	13774699	8

Last trade - 14.18pm 18/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

ADN (ASX) Chart

James Marsh - MD Interviews, page-20

HotCopper users smell capital raising as 88 Energy says "significant update" at Phoenix

FDA hands Paradigm Biopharma guidance to re-jig phase 3 osteo trial – or is it a delay?

Cauldron discovers shallow uranium up to 2km at WA's Yanrey

BPM Minerals hits high-grade gold at the Claw Project WA; shares jump 86%

Harvey Norman clocks subdued gains as Echo Law's junk warranty class action kicks off

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

James Marsh - MD Interviews, page-20

Top Stories

HotCopper users smell capital raising as 88 Energy says "significant update" at Phoenix

FDA hands Paradigm Biopharma guidance to re-jig phase 3 osteo trial – or is it a delay?

Cauldron discovers shallow uranium up to 2km at WA's Yanrey

BPM Minerals hits high-grade gold at the Claw Project WA; shares jump 86%

Harvey Norman clocks subdued gains as Echo Law's junk warranty class action kicks off

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News