GJT 0.00% $2.69 galileo japan trust

Unsure how you are even coming up with some of your numbers....

  1. 414 Posts.
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    Unsure how you are even coming up with some of your numbers. Firstly there is no cash injection, it will be a conversion of debt. Now they are converting $15m AUD debt (based upon 30 June 2009 conversion) out of $688m. Now that eliminates only 2% of GJT's total debt for giving up 40% of your equity.

    Secondly the elimination of the debt adds only about 3.7cents (405m units on issue) which is chicken feed when you consider the associated dilution. The funny thing is that the 3.7cent benefit even gets diluted by 40% leaving you with 2.2cpu benefit on the conversion prior to them taking nearly half your equity.

    Thirdly conversion has nothing to do with GJT's shareprice. The conversion is for equity in the jap entity which sits above you. They just need enough equity there to make it worth converting. Now to make it worthwhile to convert $15m into 40% of the equity there only needs to be $22.5m of equity in total prior to conversion which is an NTA of 5.5 cents (gearing in the high 90's by then with bankers leaving large brown stains in their trousers)).

    Fourthly with the current debt to asset level of about 80% all property price movements in percentage terms have four times the effect on NTA eg a 5% devaluation at December translates to a 20% drop in NTA. I think that a 5% devaluation at December would be a good result for GJT (AJA properties are of a higher quality which will experience less movement).

    Put these things together along with the risks involved and in my opinion it is not "cheap". Fair value maybe, but not cheap.
 
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