Bloomberg's projection on the uptake of the EV and the subsequent downfall of oil. See the Financial column in the smh and click on the link to Bloomberg.
The acceleration of
electric vehicles could be driving Big Oil towards a crash. Fitch says it isn't taking a red pen to oil ratings just yet but warns that an
"investor death spiral" looms for companies that fail to evolve.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
pinpoints 2028 as the year of reckoning. Over half of global oil demand is driven by transport, with motor vehicles playing a meaningful part. The analysis says electric vehicles could begin cutting into oil demand by 2023, gradually building a
fresh supply glut of 2 million barrels of oil a day, on a par with the overhang that triggered the 2014 collapse.
Barclays Capital
places D-Day only a couple of years later, at 2030, but disagrees that it's a mortal threat. It estimates a hit of 1.8m barrels a day, but says that even with this impact, demand could increase given the growth in the overall number of cars on the road. By the end of the next decade, demand may be 600,000 barrel of oil a day higher than it is today.
BP and Royal Dutch Shell will be hoping the investment bank is right. Both
oil majors have played down the potential of electric cars in dampening demand in the past, but cracks are showing in their defiance.
Earlier this year BP made a radical revision to its expectations. Its annual World Energy Outlook doubled the number of electric vehicles it expects on the world's roads in 2035 from 57m in last year's report to 100m.
