Hi Vic
What's that adage about more money being lost preparing for the next recession than has been lossed in recessions themselves? I think it's always wise to be cautious, but I'm not sure it's wise to have a strategy that assumes to know exactly how the future will play out, on the upside or the downside.
But you can take what I say with several grains of salt.
Unfortunately, there's no law of nature that determines how long economic cycles will run. What I do know is that if everyone is worried about the length of the current cycle, then its near end must be priced into markets (how can it not be?).
Much is being driven by current interest rates. But do we know whether these are at cyclical lows or whether they are in a long-term, secular trend? I don't.
We can fret over unemployment rates, car sales etc etc. But some very smart people, over many years, have thought long and hard about what should be included in LEI's (Leading Economic Indicators), and have empirically determined their veracity. If these factors are not included in the LEI, I see no compelling reason to spend emotional or intellectual energy on them. See below (LEI's for various coountries):
https://www.conference-board.org/data/
With respect to the yield curve, I find the following non-consensus view quite compelling:
https://t.co/f9fXS0xWoX
