I believe the following major factors lower the risk for that occurring:
- Quinton is Crescat Capitals advisor, he is very happy with the acquisition as quoted in the original post, Crescat own 13% of WRM and 9% of AUL = being the largest shareholder AND being happy with the acquisition, it would be a poor management decision by either AUL or WRM to pull out against their largest shareholders will
- Furthermore, Quinton is advisor to WRM. He has a direct say in the conversation if they were to discuss the land value that AUL holds, upon cold feet arising "is it really worth the merger on a geological standpoint" for which his opinion is stated above
- You also have the $300k cash issue. The Austar chairman owns 8% of AUL and has a lot of it tied up in family accounts (as it appears on the last AR), would he intentionally sway AUL to pull out of the current deal to face mass dilution and jeopardise his major skin in the game?
- You also have the shared director in WRM CEO Matt Gill (who's been an AUL director for a fair time) being already on the ground with AUL chairman starting work as if the deal is done. Would Matt pull out of the deal to only trample on that existing relationship, simultaneously trampling on both Quinton Hennighs word and Crescat Capital, his largest shareholder at WRM?
- A quick comment on AUL tenements, Quinton has stated his excitement for the land package for exploration sake and sees that as a major value add upon exploration unlock, the newsflow from that is the value add/unlock. So it isn't mere unwarranted newsflow, but what he considers significant value add and a strong asset to add.
In my opinion, following the above due diligence, the risk is low of it falling through, but not zero.
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