Lithium Related News, page-2826

This dropped on another news source which was bought to my attention, I thought it maybe of use to some if wondering what happened at the Fastmarkets LPD - conference speech from JW

.LT-B1

Fastmarkets Lithium Supply & Markets 2021: Notes & Choice Quotes

New [lithium] supply will take time to reach the market and to be qualified. Market very tight…[spodumene] restarts are slow…first late 2021…a price response will follow.

Prices can go a lot further than people think they can - look at nickel for a guide; a similarly small market of 1.2m tpa - last cycle rally ended up 590% @ US$51,800/t. Nickel is [a] well established market which leads to significant price corrections post spike…Lithium is different…an immature market; prices [are] more modest price pullbacks expected.

EVs becoming far more mainstream in 2021 than was considered several years ago…supply response awaited; ramp up issues and qualification mean this will take time…1.2m tpa needed by 2025.

Decades of strong demand growth ahead of us…New downstream capacity [cathodes and batteries] 1-2 years lead time, upstream 5-10 years…[Lithium] prices need to stay above the incentive price threshold.

Carbonate has an established big base where as hydroxide needs to grow to support more performance and prestige passenger vehicles for Europe and North America. Market demands are nuanced and will continue to be. [There are] No drop in tech[nologies] for changing cathode chemistry - US$300m minimum, more normally US$500m [to reconfigure a cathode plant to another chemistry].

Industry risks…Supply side the greatest.
Half growth to 2025 to come from greenfield projects - very young industry. Human capital risk…[lack of] skills to bring on new supply. ESG: miners are doing a great job out of the gate. Product quality: conversion of standards over time; trend towards commodity rather than specialty chemical. Cathode companies [will] homogenise materials from various sources…US$1/kg required to refine technical grade material - specialist refiners to emerge.

Offtake evolution: convergence towards index driven basis, with risk management tools - futures contracts - to manage risk…liquidity required.

Is this cycle different? [Lithium] chemical demand 50% above supply at year ended 2021, couldn’t be contemplated at the beginning of the year…Even in an oligopoly structure the market will need 500-600ktpa plus from today’s junior developers [by 2030?].

Marginal cost moving up from US$10kpt by 10-20% but there is a big difference to incentive prices.

10% EV penetration rate in various parts of the world changes everything. Never seen demand quadrupling [only ?] over a decade: very bullish on lithium right now.

This cycle is different, the last cycle was speculative in nature this is fundamentally driven.

Lithium industry is massively underfunded.
A coherent defendable ESG strategy is essential in this cycle to be able to access offtake and finance.

EV sales now forecast to be 5.8m units…18.5% EV penetration in Europe required to meet regulatory requirements.

China has committed US$100b in EV subsidies in the last 10 years…the US is just starting.

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