The following was from Cannacord's research on VUL. It's extraordinary how much of a supply imbalance is being forecast.
"To reduce the carbon footprint of batteries, we believe manufacturers will berequired to source raw materials locally within the EU and from low carbonjurisdictions such as the South American salars. The EU currently is coming off asmall base with next to no capacity of lithium chemicals for the battery supplychain. There are a few projects located and being planned for in Europe including:
Vulcan Energy (ASX.VUL) Zero Carbon Lithium project (Germany) – 40ktLithium hydroxide over a life of +35 years. We believe this will be aproject of national interest for Germany, marking its position as a leaderin the European transition to EVs.
Rio Tinto (RIO.ASX) Jadar Lithium project (Serbia) – 55kt Lithiumhydroxide over 30 years.
European Metal Holdings (EMH.ASX) Cinovec Lithium project (CzechRepublic) – 24kt Lithium hydroxide over 30 years.
Savannah Resources (SAV.AIM) Mina do Barroso Lithium project(Portugal) – 200kt spodumene concentrate over 11 years.
Livista Energy – 35kt Lithium hydroxide converter plant.
Infinity Lithium (INF.ASX) San Jose Lithium project (Spain) – 15ktLithium hydroxide over a life of 30 years.
If fully developed these projects would only satisfy between 3% and 15% of totaldemand. Clearly there is a need for additional capacity within Europe; however,seeking additional supply may not be as simple as purchasing it from internationalproducers. Assuming Europe does not pursue Chinese material on environmentalgrounds it would purchase almost 100% of ex-China production. Quite simply, when considering global growth expectations and based off the currentdevelopment profile there isn’t enough lithium to satisfy demand.
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