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DC what analysis did you use to call the short term top. Any...

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07/07/24

12:49

Post #: 74642237
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Originally posted by dc1234: ↑

Trying to hold the lower level, is that 32?.
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So we have now come down from high of 49.2 to a low of 32, finishing at 33, last week 34. Its clear its wanting to hold this level. 32 is important, but 30 is a bigger- if sector goes down. I had written in May when I felt most U stocks will top by end of May, and then they will drop 30/40%. So close, around 35%. This week I have mentioned that if CCJ takes a long time to bottom, many ASX U stocks could stretch from 30 to 50%. But LOT has already lost a lot. I am thinking at worst on a bad day, it may reach closer towards 40%, but no more. But lets see.
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And please, its not that I want LOT or U stocks to fall. I am just providing my thoughts on trading patterns. There are big pundits out there who know much more than me what is happening. So I could be completely wrong. But I got right that we may top in May end, and we will drop 30/40%. I may have been lucky.
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Here is my report for this week.
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Uranium Sector overview- (My comments similar to last week) I made a call several weeks back that CCJ will make new highs between 55 to 60 in this phase of rally. It reached 56.24 on 31st May. Two weeks before end of May, I wrote there is a very good probability we will do tops in next 2 weeks. Somehow it played out that way. I wrote that after this CCJ may go towards 45, on Friday it play in 49. I also wrote, especially for high flying ASX big stocks which made huge gains, that they will peak by end of May, and then lose around 30 to 40%. Many have lost nearly 30%, some even more. I still feel it will go down more. Reason being I am thinking we may bottom when CCJ reaches around 45, still some time to go for that, another few weeks I think, before end of July, It will drag most U stocks down. If CCJ reverses from here, all bets are off and we could look for reversal in the sector. If CCJ loses 45, then 39 comes into play, that will be very bad for the sector. Odds favour CCJ bottoming at 45 in another few week. Next high around 65 we may see in September. That's the play I if it looks like happening that way, else will follow price action - no point in assuming anything. Till now my predictions have been close to what has played, but I may have been lucky in the calls.
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Personally I exited mostly end of May and rest first week of June. Looking for a re-entry. I am still very positive about the sector, so should be back soon.
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For those interested how stock is tracking against other Uranium stocks or who hold multiple Uranium stocks, I do a Weekly Report across 34 ASX U stocks for more than 3 years. It has got Weekly/Yearly data how stocks are tracking. Also figures for last year. I also have commentary across general markets and sector. Those just holding specific stocks, it may not be relevant, so please ignore.

Here is the report for this week
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https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/age-weekly-report.6580138/page-5#post-74639185
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DC what analysis did you use to call the short term top. Any specific indicators ?
LOT Price at posting: 33.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

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Last 26.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $462.5M

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