MNS 0.00% 4.2¢ magnis energy technologies ltd

The lithium-ion battery price outlook projection chart you...

  1. 149 Posts.
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    The lithium-ion battery price outlook projection chart you shared from Bloomberg is an adjusted-average based on all publicly quoted prices across a very diverse market (mobiles, home units, grid stabilisation units, military and civilian applications). It's heavily skewed towards the lower end which doesn't require as much quality, reliability, longevity or recharging capability as a roadworthy EV. Not to mention supply chain and sustainability of process being a metric many governments and international authorities will begin to force companies to either pay for or improve toiwards; this will actually drive up the E2E price for L-ion batteries in the near future.

    Magnis' claim is that their patented and proven battery tech is world leading in both green-ness and speed of charging at EV scale after hundreds of cycles, which is the key benchmark when comparing to other EV batteries. Thus they probably can demand a higher than average price per kWh, and given they are already well positioned for government and military contracts it's definitely feasible they can easily pivot or even parallel collab with commercial car makers such as Ford or GM.

    Since most large cap US-based companies are considered 'good value' from sp perspective at a PE ratio of 20:1, if you throw a $125/kWh price tag (where the line is for 2022) on a 1 GWh production p.a, you arrive at a tentative market cap of $2.5b. Scaling from 1 to 2GWh is a lot easier than from 0 to 1, so it's not a major stretch to value themselves at $5b some time in mid-late 2022.

    Of course the two requirements to truly earning this valuation is that they succeed in getting to producing by end of 2021/early 2022, AND securing a major customer to soak up what they produce, both of which I'm pretty confident they will succeed now that I know who the im3 management are.

    GLTAH.
 
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