Yep, this is exactly how things will play out. It is known as plausible deniabily. BRN will be in a position where they can forecast revenues out for quite some time, but just not officially, which suits the end user & neatly bypasses ASX continuous disclosure rules. What multinational manufacturer wants their plans & marketing strategy upended by annoying ASX disclosure rules?
Plausible deniabily allows BRN to maintain strict business in confidence - this is just as important to the BRN client relationship as the product BRN is offering.
BRN will certainly be privy to which manufacturers are incorporating BRN technology into their products & when these products will hit the market. This also means BRN will have a very good idea of revenue forecasts but they are not obliged to release this information to the market because it does not yet exist. The only indications of its existence will be if the end manufacturer decides to sing BRN praises or via the incoming BRN financials. What this means is that an investor must look at other indirect revenue forecast indicators. Unfortunately for those who insist on their hand being held throughout life this is where they need to back themselves.
LinkedIn is one indicator, as is BRN staff appointments, staff numbers, staff recruiting, premises location.... On & on. This is what some refer to as dot joining.... Maybe so, but at this stage it's the only information you're going to get so it's up to the investor to sift & weigh all indicators & probabilities. Then use your brain & arrive at a hypothesis. This is the point at which you either back yourself or you do not. Bearing plausible deniabily in mind, Sean's comments that "the SP will do what the SP will do" as well as "watch the revenue" must be understood in this context. Until revenue begins to flow in (which it certainly has - the next 1/4ly will give a better indicator of how revenue will increase), the SP will be at the mercy of gossip & rumour, but mostly fear.
The unpredictable SP that inevitably results becomes a big problem for those shareholders who do not understand this. They are not at all confident in their decision making (not just investment decisions but most decisions in life) & seek continual reassurance from others that their decisions are the right decisions.
The answer to calm this type of investor is to invest in large blue chips where the majority of risk has been removed but also so has any chance of rapid SP increases.
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