mongo's - tranny trouble - thursday, page-11

In America:

Dow Industrials -0.21%
Dow Transports -0.74%
SP500 -0.33%
Russell 2000 -0.82%
Nasdaq100 -0.4%

Comment: Major market indices were down modestly, with the Dow 30 the best of them. The Dow 30 had a narrow range day, on volume lower than yesterday. That gives the bulls some hope.

NewHighs/NewLows 102/4. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 96.2% – that remains in the “no sell” zone (above 80%).

Technical Comment on the Dow 30:

The Dow finished at 12938.7. Index continues a modest withdrawal from the 13,000 level.
Indicators:
Stochastic: 88.3. Overbought. Above its signal line.
RSI.9 is at 63.4. Not yet overbought, but in the danger zone.
MACD Histogram. Marginally above Zero. Neutral.
MACD. Marginally below Zero. Neutral.
CCI.14: +124.4. Above +100. A fall below that level would be negative.

The back test of the rising wedge (bearish) appears to be failing. Still too early to tell. A big down down is needed to confirm a failed test. The short term and medium term trends remain up.

Today, two significant indices (Transport and Russell2000) were again negative. Transport and small caps tend to be leader indices. Dow Transport Index is now down around the 50-Day MA. If this pull-back is an aberration, it might turn up here. At the moment, the divergence between the Transports and the Dow 30 is a worry.

The Stochastic is now oversold. The CCI is showing a positive divergence. So a bounce here would not be unexpected.


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