:-) Ramses, I see you have NEU finishing with double the market cap of PBT. IF PBT2 is successful against Alzheimer's, remember Alzheimer's is a very big market.
Your PBT figure relates to a market cap of about $1.5b.
Using the ELN(nasdaq) model which I think is very good, being a minor holder of failed alzheimer's candidate(bapi), with a minor interest in another neurodegeneration MS drug Tysabri earning them about $1B is running a current price of around $15 with a market cap of $8.43b, and it was double that when they thought Bapi was going to work. I don't think they have ever made a profit. Currently takeover is effecting everything but while the Alzheimer's hope was flying the cap got to double that of today.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ELN
Another that was a recent Alzheimer's player is Medivation, with their failed Dimebon. They did better with a prostate cancer androgen blocker drug and now sales are close to $200m. Market cap of $4b plus
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MDVN
Huntingtons would be nice, but we need the Alzheimer's trial to repeat the success of the previous trial out to one year.
I think if only HD is a success perhaps start with MDVN market cap, and if Alzheimer's gets close to market start with the ELN cap. That is close to a 60bagger from here.
I would guess that if the figures get that high Pran may split the ADRs. Anybody know if that is doable.
Of course those big multiples only apply after we pass some trials in what has proven to be a very difficult field, so maybe a little too soon to be counting chickens, although I was looking at a very nice 60foot yacht last week:-)
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