All the PHD's in the world can't stop a Fed miscalculation triggering a recession, as has been proven in the past.
Two schools of thought on what is happening -
A) Fed data shows a recession is on it's way, so the Fed continues to push rates higher in order to have some room to cut rates when it arrives.
or
B) Fed is making a major error.
Trump and the Fed are on a collision course, with the collision getting closer by the day.