Decided to do a quick valuation model. Notes below
Only considers VP-001. No value assigned to pipeline nor platform.
All figures USD Addressable market (annual) - 1 billion p.a. Probability of FDA approval - 65% (based on PYC presentation citing monogenic disease target drugs) Additional development cost - $50m (excludes current cash on hand) Years to market - 3 years Discount rate - 10% (appropriate as its very stable cashflow once FDA approved. Probability of approval already included above) Years of patent protection from today - 17 years
NPV - $2.9 bn USD
If I reduce probability of FDA approval to 10%, we still get a valuation of $450m USD
With a current market cap of $150m USD, PYC is very undervalued. Of course this may reflect the binary nature of potential outcomes (drugs can either get approved, or get rejected)
PYC Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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