Decided to do a quick valuation model. Notes below
Only considers VP-001. No value assigned to pipeline nor platform.
All figures USD
Addressable market (annual) - 1 billion p.a.
Probability of FDA approval - 65% (based on PYC presentation citing monogenic disease target drugs)
Additional development cost - $50m (excludes current cash on hand)
Years to market - 3 years
Discount rate - 10% (appropriate as its very stable cashflow once FDA approved. Probability of approval already included above)
Years of patent protection from today - 17 years
NPV - $2.9 bn USD
If I reduce probability of FDA approval to 10%, we still get a valuation of $450m USD
With a current market cap of $150m USD, PYC is very undervalued. Of course this may reflect the binary nature of potential outcomes (drugs can either get approved, or get rejected)
New valuation of PYC
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Mkt cap ! $559.9M | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| 12.0¢ | 12.5¢ | 11.5¢ | $1.339M | 11.13M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 122500 | 11.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| 12.0¢ | 820585 | 4 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 24/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| 12.5¢ | 12.5¢ | 11.5¢ | 2426355 | ||
| Last updated 15.48pm 24/05/2024 ? | |||||
| PYC (ASX) Chart |