Why are we talkimg about raising only 100m? The half yearly...

First 17 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Yoda2503

883 Posts.

113

09/08/18

14:57

Post #: 34835043
Share

Originally posted by dexternot ↑

How, given the publicly available information, and economic and operating conditions, do you envisage that the market cap will increase from $75.83 million (there are 182.745 million shares outstanding) to $200 million (an increase of 2.6 times) let alone to $400 to $500 million (increases of 5.27 and 6.6 times respectively)?

It is plainly evident that the company is and or will be starved of capital to implement its growth (survival?) strategies.

To enable the company to implement its strategies it must obtain further capital (further debt funding is not a viable alternative). Therefore it would have to issue shares.

Given the current situation, any such issue would have to be at a significant discount to the most recent price of $0.415 per share.

Being generous, the company may need to raise $100 million gross, which is $95 million net (issuing costs of 5%) (to cover onerous lease and make good costs $17.5 million, further acquisition costs, strategic review, upgrade plant and equipment, and so on - lets assume that this costs $40 million in total). This will leave approximately $55 million with which to 'get on with its strategy'.

Note that there is a debt reduction requirement of $12.5 million in March 2019 and further repayment obligations of $100 million and $50 million in January and December 2020 respectively.

So, the $55 million becomes $42.5 million that is available. Probably less due to working capital changes.

The price of shares to be issued to raise the gross $100 million will be at a significant discount to the current share price ($0.415). Being realistic, the 'issuing price' of the new shares will be in the range of $0.30 (optimistic) to $0.20 (pessimistic). Therefore, the number of new shares to be issued will range from 333.33 million to 500 million. This would leave the number of shares on issue after the raising ranging from 516 million to 682 million.

If the company were to achieve a market cap of $100 million the share price would range between $0.19 and $0.15. Significant change form today's price, and alarming!

Expand

Why are we talkimg about raising only 100m? The half yearly report made it clear the company could not support debt at any level, and things have got worse since, so add the debt the cost of the onerous leases and some cash to turn things around and we are talking a 350 to 400m raising, and their is no way on earth they can do that at 20c, it will ne lower

RFG Price at posting: 40.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply