Nuix is trading at a 50% discount to brokers target prices and a 77% discount to intrinsic value. All of the mum and dad/ weak investors have sold out, and the strong sellers are about to buy back in at a massive discount. This plummet has been a complete over reaction. Its fair value rating is at 5.44 and currently trading at 4.91. Institutions have begun buying back in with Bank of America buying a parcel yesterday. I just bought some more. Im going to retire off this in a year.
*: "It noted that Nuix’s contract completions are typically weighted towards the end of the financial half years, and more than 30% of that half’s revenue was signed in December 2020. In other words, the company believes the pipeline for the second half will be solid." - https://unauthorised investment advice/tech/the-asx-biggest-ipo-of-2020-is-back-under-its-ipo-price-so-is-nuix-a-buy-or-bust/
Nuix Key points
- Historically NUIX capabilities in Analyses and review processing parts of the data has been weak.
- Nuix acquired Ring Tale last year, being a strong acquisition for NUIX and placed them in a strong competitive position. Ring Tale are good at the analyses and review piece. The acquisition and capabilities is a step change in competitive positioning for Nuix.
- Nuix is leveraged to benefit from many growing markets. Specifically seeing a lot of growth in the Asian pacific market which is growing strongly and other addressable markets. There is lots more growth in the US. The US currently accounts for 56% of the business.
- They have a track record of growth with recurring revenues
- The business is very scalable with high incremental margins
- Set to benefit from the impact of COVID-19 with a lot of potential opportunities in the pipeline.
- Ring Tale acquisition (Sept 2018)
- Ring tales efficient review and automation capabilities creates an end to end eDiscovery platform for Nuix.
- Enables Nuix and Ringtale to address entire eDiscovery market and offer a seamless solution across the eDiscovery workflow
- Nuix really good at Processing Data, Ringtale really good at the analysis and review of data. The intergration is transformational and a step change in competitive positioning for legal, risk and compliance industries. The acquisition raises the bar in the competitive sphere and improves the pace of innovation in eDiscovery.
- There is a large addressable market and already in strong growing markets such as the Asia Pacific.
- The solution saves millions of dollars and thousands of hours of time previously spend collecting, processing and reviewing data.
- Highly scalable.
- NPAT forecast for FY2021 = $23.6m
- CEO has a long and successful track record with 20+ years in the tech industry (Good management overall)
- “By 2023, more than 70% of enterprise IT leaders will upgrade to end-to-end e-discovery software to reduce time and legal spend, up from 10% in 2019.”
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NUIX from here - will it run like Airtasker??
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Mkt cap ! $909.1M |
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$2.98 | $2.98 | $2.80 | $1.571M | 542.4K |
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1 | 2033 | $2.81 |
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