Righty oh fellow supporters -
Some facts / speculation / predictions for you from a long termer (10 years)
Fact - Current NPV 811mil or 1.1billion AUD. With 400million shares on issue That puts at a share price of just under 3 buck a share. Assuming some dilution along the way safely $2.30 per share
Fact - NPV was calculated at 17000$/t but spot price is currently 24000$/t. if they use current spot price that is a 42%increase 1.1billion so NPV increases to 1.6billion aud or 4 bucks a share minus dilition.
Fact - There is a EU 723 Billion covid recovery fund of which 140billion is for Spanish recovery fund and 73 billion earmarked for spanish grants.
Speculation - The 500million Capex required will come some where from the EU 723 Billion / 140billion Spanish recovery fund and the 73 billion earmarked for spanish grants. Lets assime a around 300million from the recovery fund and 50 to 100 in grants that only leaves 100million or so left that can either come from a share issue or from low interest loans from EU banks.
While people can argue my speculation for how much will be grants and recovery funds, my point is that there will be a lot less share dilution than I had initially counted on.
Speculation - reduce Capex and therefore reduce share dilution through leasing the mining fleet rather than purchasing a fleet.
Speculation - my broker tells me a company's market cap in this field is approx 1 to 1.5 times npv so at 17000$/t 1.1billion to 1.65 billion or at $24000$/t 1.6 billion to 2.4billion market cap
Prediction - from the above I predict on approval of the project a share price well in excess of $4 per share fully diluted.
Further to this I look forwards to hearing more about the Patents INF are subbmitting at the moment as that will if sucessful bring further reduction in Capex and Opex and further increase in share price
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Righty oh fellow supporters - Some facts / speculation /...
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