Open and close price on Monday, page-7

NdPr down 5 RMB last few days. Pr down 10 RMB/ KG yesterday Again not much of an impact other than change of direction but still too early to tell if it is an oscillation or trend. Nd was up a little yesterday. Nd, Pr, NdPr, La , and Ce Metals most recent moves were all down. Does not mean much to Lynas but can be telling about future direction of the LREO market. Dow down a little. USD 310 in last two days. Tinny impact. Us unemployment numbers for last week a little worse than expected. I consider all of these far more important than the BL being delayed possibly cancelled. My list is in order of importance But you asked for a guess and this is Just a guess because right now this stock is moving on emotion and not metrics at all and that is hard to predict. My guess is it is down but probably stays above Aud 2.00. good chance above 2.05, If it drops more than 10 cents than that is emotion kicking in for sure. 10 cents a share is more than the US BL contract is worth in total over its entire life, It is worth Aud 62M divided by 700M shares or about 9 cents / Sh. If i was considering buying or selling. Don't own any shares, I would be far more interested in What Q4 and AR might look like. Look at stock chart for Feb 27 when 3 year licensed was announced. Then look at feb 28 when H1 profits was announced Profits down 80%. and look at stock fifteen days later SP fell from 1.995 to 1.08. then decide what you should be looking at. JMO but Q4 in Late June and AR in late August will be very significant events for Lynas SP. There is one other event but I do not know if it will occur between now and end of June or sometime in Q1 . that is a major cash raising to cover the large negative cash flow from operations and spending on the 2025 plan. Size and terms will have a major impact on SP. Not necessarily a negative. If from Japan and has very low or no interest for a year or two and then low interest it could be a very big positive. The 2025 plan is an excellent plan. If they finance it at favorable terms, which i think they will, it could be a big plus. Emotionally if loan value is over 150M even if released in stages then that will be a blow for those that do not acknowledge just how bad cash is going to be. Of course NdPr, Nd, and PR prices can change everything, at current prices I expect Lynas will need about AUD 450M ~ 550M by 2025. LREO prices should rise long before then so that number is pobally high. Just something to keep in mind and adjust for as prices and volumes change.