My posts on share price typically are after someone has put some...

My posts on share price typically are after someone has put some numbers forward. Back in 2020 mid-year 51 Capital suggested $4.22 was justified back in 2018 (not sure of the date).
"Applying a 50% discount to the estimated deal size whilst assuming zero value for ParadigmsRoss River trial and other indications, increasing the issued capital by 15% and weighting the probability of success at 95% - Paradigm should currently trade on a fully diluted basis at anAUD equivalent of $4.22 per share."
Later, in the same report they wrote, expecting BiGPharma to come fishing
"Based on the SAS data that has been released and will continue to be released fromParadigm, we believe the probability weighting towards success should be increased significantly. We are getting the answers to the exam before it’s finished.Taking this into consideration and assigning a 90% probability to a successful phase 2 trial,the valuation based on the above scenarios accommodates a share price of $5.20."
Then
"it is our view that over the next 5 years assuming all results are successful, and deals completed, Paradigm may achieve a share price in excess of $20 per share." That is in 2023.
"
There have been other analyst reports eg each CR by Bell Potter.
What changes each year is slippage.
PR said sometime last year "no revenue before 2026", -- to me that means no USA/EU revenue till 2027, unless there is a deal struck in China, or an MPS deal, or TGA; either China or TGA may pressure FDA to play 'nice'.
IMO...
For MPS, anything that makes another CR unnecessary would be welcome. Frankly with all that has not happened I would settle for $50m or around 17c a share - a fraction of what was being canvassed a year or so ago here.
For China any deal which protected the dosage price would be welcome.
For TGA, AFIK the very shortest path is 150 workdays from go-ahead and add 3 months for TGA to mull over the results, so early 2025 if they get approval 1Q this year.
What seems to be ignored regarding PM is the crush of separate trial aspects all ending in a short time frame. It ain't going to happen. You can add 3 months to whatever PM chart we get to see.
So what we have is a company that should be priced (according to others) at $4.22 as long ago as mid 2020, and even earlier..
Why isn't it?
1. slippageS
2. misleading blue-sky messaging about deal prospects. Better to have said nothing.
3. poor capital management, and poor messaging about total costs yet to be met. I still haven't seen estimated costs through to labelling.
4. The local investor pool is disillusioned. PAR needs to implement ADRs to enlarge the investor pool.
5. Why invest when there is dilution at 65c staring at you? I had said repeatedly to PAR that issuing options IN THE MONEY was a better idea than going to Bell Potter. They really are clueless. Admittedly, the dilution is minor, nut it remains a factor until there is positive news.

Clearly, PAR needs to kick some goals on project management, including cost estimates.
While my sentiment is buy, i have reached my limit.

Time for a posting holiday, pending news.

IMO. DYOR. GLTAH.