The 10c "range" is a reflection of the investor sentiment based on their / our perception from information shared, market trends and more broadly - globally. It is not necessarily / actually the value of the company and we all know this.
At an investor level (me) it is a game of buy and wait, and buy more and wait (repeat). Waiting time and fluctuations are all part of the deal at this end of the market as is riding on highs and lows while you anticipate what might be - ah, to dream.
For traders it is about movement so of little interest to me. In NZT's case I think you mention you are good with a 20% movement. That's fine, it is what you are happy with. That said, the wall of shares for sale at 11c, - 15c (circa 5M) looks scary to anyone buying in - after all, the sell side looks & is bigger than buy. Why would that be ? Just see Buckie's posts for a hint.
The current sell side represents less than 2% of total shares on market. That said, there will be a decant volume not in the queue that would be sold down given the SP has been dipping even lower at times. (trader packages ready to drop when movement happens). Again, not my game.
So for PAA today, the 10c price is driven by people wanting to sell very cheaply and not so much about people wanting to buy in.
We do need to see a commercial deal done on the lead drug (Monepantel) and this is all coming home to roost over the 21/22 period IMO. Yes, the failing to land of the Elanco deal was very disappointing but in the context of the circumstances, logically it was not a surprising outcome. Prior to that period, clearly the BoD anticipated a successful outcome.
All the same, as Lastly has pointed out - the drug did what it was meant to do. It did actually deliver as expected in that trial. So with covid under control, vets clearly encouraged by first round results, good advertising this time, still with very restrictive entry criteria, and more than enough pills for dogs on both compassionate and trial use, plus the knowledge of the biphasic nature of the drug in performance against cancer...... the situation has got a solid chance of being improved results.. Improved results is what Elanco wanted. And Elanco are not the only rodeo in town.
As for covid and viral use, plus MND, these are welcomed divergences and both present opportunities with no bad news yet on either front.
Human cancer trails, well they will benefit from all of the above and my take on the delaying of this is to let the MND trail pay for and refine some of the inputs thus reducing the risk and cost of human cancer trails. ONJ work is also feeding into this aspect.
The desktop reactor, I hear folks say just do MPL and get it done soon. But Epichem / Colin only play a supporting role in it and for year 1 the thing has already paid for itself. Having a diversified opportunity away from MPL is, in my view, not a bad thing - particularly when i don't see it detracting from the main game of MPL.
So, 10c , ah, it is perception today. And tomorrow it may be the same or different. Been here when it was both less than half and more than double.
If folks take their sells off the table, maybe, just maybe the price would go up. I think at least 99% of us want that (trader or investor).
Sure, the BoD could pump and polish in attempts to drive the price up and I still think that time will come when it is appropriate. Right now they are just trying to get the data they need to move forward and have a solid commercial pitch to take to Vet Majors. Also I am pretty sure the covid stuff has potential to be expensive so placing even more importance on a vet deal soon (I think anyway). Ultimately, they are conserving cash to avoid CRs and I am ok with this. I believe that when the time is right, they will bring in the band and dust off some pompoms.
My ramblings.
adreamer and waiting.
PAA Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)