MSB 1.73% $1.18 mesoblast limited

Your first clue is that you assumed 27 deaths. A 50% reduction...

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    Your first clue is that you assumed 27 deaths. A 50% reduction would be 13.5 fewer (yeah I know you can't have half a death), but you only assumed 10 fewer. But it is actually 60% fewer. Easy calc, 27 is 100% so 10% 2.7 so 6 times this 16.2 fewer, so likely 10 or 11 deaths compared to 27 using your numbers.
 
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