phosphate note

First note on the Global Phosphate market that I have seen.

I think that some of BBY's assumptions re: future rock phosphate prices are typical of broking houses... ultra-conservative, and unable to grasp the concept of secular change.

I think that in much the same way as the smartest analyst's out there were unable to pick/appreciate the continual strong demand for Iron Ore 2-3 years ago... it seems like Fertiliser commodities are a natural subscriber to the same mass industrialisation/modernisation economic theories, and hence the same growing demand curves. Thus, I find BBY's future price forecasts to be slightly dramatic.

Additionally, I would suggest that BBY's analysis of the cost-profile of the worlds Phosphate deposits (~90% @ $30-$60/tonne) to be wildly innacurate, and based on outdated input costs... seen the price of oil/labour recently?

Also interesting to note that there are unconfirmed rumours of delays at Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia.

It stops short of actual buy/hold/sell recommendations for the fertiliser plays, but certainly provides some classification of the most advanced stories on the ASX.

A final point is that many of the figures/tables/charts in the report stop at about 2006... and hence have no incorporation of current pricing/demand levels factored into them. Some are more current... but conflicting levels of data usage can only lead to confusion right?

Anyway... here it is (follow all the links/prompts to actually download the pdf):

GlobalPhospateNote