jev,Some of the assumptions have a sound basis as you point out,...

jev,

Some of the assumptions have a sound basis as you point out, for example the cost of the impact was given by POH as $200 per head, your estimate of the treatment cost looks sound. Herd sizes and disease rates are all easy verifiable. However the one large unknown is how much POH sell and the revenue that can accrue to them. Again, the idea that you can estimate the 'likely' impact on the share price is farcical.

If you want to question any of my assumptions, go ahead, but don't waste my time by simply asserting that there are too many unknowns. I make my living doing these kinds of estimates, and sure, they are imprecise, but so what?

Economists and financial forecasters also make their living (usually quite a good one) doing these kind estimates yet it turns out their success rate is about the same as the outcome of tossing a coin.