Project CAPEX and Working Capital Comparisons, page-9

I can use this analysis to arrive at a peer-based valuation of ADN. The market is taking into account the project complexity of A4N, PLL and LTR and still applying high valuations to these small cap peers. This group have significant technical risk and high risk of dilution.

I have excluded FYI from this list as the multiple above 2241% is an outlier and would distort the peer average. ATC is well into development.

So how can we put a value on ADN's significantly lower startup burden and hence significantly lower development risk?

We can do that by:

• Step 1 - calculating peer average startup multiple (result is 279% as a peer average of set A4N, LTR, PLL). Recognise that both LTR and PLL are still yet to complete Pre-feasibility studies.
• Step 2- flip the startup multiple and use it to calculate ADN's "fair value" Market cap.
  279% / 40% x MCAP $46.9M = $326.5M

So what is a fair value for the share price? Well it is best to calculate that on a fully-diluted basis. This estimate is setting a fair value based on startup and dilution risk.

Remember:

• ADN - letters of intent for 208kt of wet-refined product, startup costs $19M
• A4N - no MoUs/Offtakes, startup costs $228M
• PLL - no MoUs/Offtakes, startup costs $303M
• LTR - no MoUs/Offtakes, startup costs $262M

(startup costs calculated in my opening post)

Result = current fair value estimate = $0.151 (fully-diluted)

View attachment 1824481