RLG 0.00% 0.4¢ roolife group ltd

Q2 2022 - what's coming?

  1. 342 Posts.
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    Hope everyone is well.

    I've been absent on account of travel, and only just now realize how difficult it is to track Tmall numbers from outside of Asia. Since RLG has been radio-silent over the period, and I've not been able to analyze things, I've also been silent - but I'm still here, and continue to add to my stack. Anyhow, after just returning back home, my analysis suggests a few positives coming from Tmall, and a few unknowns - see below:

    1) Remedy & Amie (both launched around December) have both made good progress. Remedy has already sold more than 1,000 units, and Amie has sold over 300 total. Given the snowball of revenue on Tmall, these are both great signs for the future, and much stronger launches than previous stores.
    2) The Essano store seems to have disappeared. I'm not sure why, but I have no data for Essano. I also don't have data for Murray River, but it's a different data issue, not sure why
    3) Overall, numbers continue to track well, and are growing over time. Interestingly, we can get huge random spikes - I'm guessing the result of bulk purchase when discounts are offered or similar. To illustrate, Nuria typically sells between RMB 100-200k of product per month, but in October a large volume sale pushed this to RMB 550k. We also saw this in Essano (albeit at a lower number) in December.

    Now - for the quarterly. I'm guessing it will be out this week. Here are my thoughts in order of importance:

    (1) REVENUE - I'm looking for this to be over 5M. A good result would be 4.8M, but given the recent share price, this really needs to be 5M.
    (1.5) CASHFLOW - Given operating cashflow was so poor last quarter, it has to be positive this quarter. This is almost as critical as revenue. No more quoting the large working capital as a reason for costs, we just need to deliver on this one
    (3) LAUNCHES / WINS - Given the radio-silence, I'll be interested to see if they have won anything new. With China closing itself even more from the world because of COVID-19, we are sitting in a sweet spot - we need to capitalize while we are there.
    (4) FORECASTS - We used to get revenue forecasts for the next quarter (rather than promises of cash), I'd love to see a bold revenue prediction for Q3. We've had 4 record quarters of revenue in a row, we should be singing loudly, not just selling ourselves when we need cash.

    GLTAH Let the records continue, and hope to hell that the market listens for once
 
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