Ah, just like Charlie Aitken gets paid to say buy bhp high 30's,...

Ah, just like Charlie Aitken gets paid to say buy bhp high 30's, only to see it tank and then switch to a sell low 30s only to rally to mid 30s. I used to be in the game and know plenty of analysts, it isn't worth the toilet paper it is written on (and most of them know it). Look at iron prices from analysts - gs says $80/t in to 2015 whereas other say $110/t. Analysts have zero credibility! Another example is as HF posted from UBS - dropped price target from $1.10 to 20c in a day - would love to be a client on holiday that missed the call before they released this bombshell (on the back of no news and purely sentiment).

However, it is not to say you're wrong but I would have thought at such a discount your downside is limited and any tiny squeeze on the shorter front will see this pop 30% plus in a day.