'Crazy to think that back in November our mate Serge point blank said in front of Felix that we are ready to rock and roll, we are just waiting for the powers to be approval. At what point does the Government start to feel the pressure...'
My understanding is that the 15-member DFS Committee has been under pressure from the government (from the top down) to expedite the final hurdle (FTO). It is also my understanding that the 'hold-up' (at least up until now) was due to the President of the Committee (who apparently has the final say) being away & forced to seek medical attention in South Africa. My BTD suggests that he has since returned to the DRC and so I am hopeful of some movement on the FTO this coming week.
If the Government are indeed applying pressure to award the ML ASAP (as has been inferred), then IMO it is reasonable to assume that the remainder of the process (DG of Cami review then onto Minister for Mines for rubber stamping) can and will be expedited. If so, IMO AVZ could potentially still have its ML awarded by the end of January, and boots on the ground suggest that there are senior officials who are pushing for this to be so.
It's also worth remembering that 2023 (AVZ's target for first production) also happens to be an election year and so it is in the current government's best interests to have Manono and the development of a battery minerals (and indeed EV battery) province up & running and showcased i.e. for voters to then judge Tshisekedi's economic & reform progress during the Sacred Union's by then ~2-year term in office.
Therefore, IMO it would be unwise and counter-productive IMO for the govt (also directly invested via state owned Cominiere) to hold the project up any longer than need be.
'10 ° The DRC is at the heart of the energy transition .
From this perspective, the country is keen to develop the country's immense natural resources through the development of strategic mineral value chains. The construction work of the electric battery manufacturing plant in Manono is part of this path.
Considered the best destination for all battery buyers, but also for manufacturers, the DRC can hope to capture part of the "8 trillion dollars" in income from the sale of electric vehicles by 2025, "46,000 billion by 2050 ”.
Moreover, it is to be hoped that the progress made and to be consolidated over time will strengthen the economic recovery process and substantially improve the social status of the Congolese population.'
At first, I was a little sceptical of the thought of a 40mtpa operation scenario, instead advocating for sometime 2 x 10mtpa plants might be the maximum for this project.
However, due to recent events including;
a) the establishment of a DRC battery minerals council & plans for a local EV battery province
b) a massive and sooner than expected increase in global EV demand in 2021/22 (noting the already massive and growing backlog of EV & Li-ion battery orders)
c) the relatively sudden & substantial increase in full BEV investment from ALL auto manufacturers globally and;
d) the rate at which already giant CATL and other battery manufacturers are expanding and required to expand,
then I am now more inclined to think that an eventual 40mtpa operation at Manono (combined throughput via Roche Dure and CDL) might be the MAIN ONE of only a handful of realistic near term Lithium projects/options that could allow the industry's rapid transition to electrification to progress at the rate now desired & evident on a global scale.
GLTA, enjoy the rest of your weekend and note that the above is all IMO (Sunday morning musings) so please DYOR.
Cheers
Elpha
AVZ Price at posting:
86.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)