I’m going for takeover post phase 2, so later in the year for me...

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good1234

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18/01/23

07:57

Post #: 65743391
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Originally posted by Mr Street: ↑

If a T/O is on the cards it will be after FDA approval of Trof.

Big Pharma can justify paying a 100% premium (or whatever level is appropriate) for an approved drug, even if the SP is $10-$15 pre-offer, but can't justify (to it's Board and Shareholders) taking a 'gamble' on a yet-to-be-approved drug when the SP is $9.

Using that logic and high-level SP guesstimates we may see a T/O in the region of $20-$30 per share. [Disclaimer: this is total guesswork so don't sell your house and go all-in based on some crackpot calcs from a random person on the internet!].

From an Acquirers perspective it would also probably make sense to launch a T/O before the NNZ-2591 trials progress to Phase 3 so the majority of any value uplift from NNZ-2591 accrues to the Acquirer (I expect a portion of 'potential' value could be included in any T/O premium but it will be insignificant compared to the 'full' value if the Phase 3 Trials are successful and NNZ-2591 gets FDA approved).

The success (or failure) of the NNZ-2591 Phase 2 trials could significantly impact the premium an Acquirer needs to pay so this is likely to impact when they make an offer and it's possible we may see an offer before the Phase 2 trial results are published?

From a timing perspective that means we could see a T/O some time after Q1-2023 (after FDA approval of Trof.) and before/during H2-2023 (before Phase 2 Trial results are announced).

There is nothing wrong with people selling now and/or trying to time the SP movements around announcements - everyone has their own specific situation and needs to do what is best for them - but it's probably not too much longer before we are truly rewarded for holding NEU and I certainly don't want to be sitting on the sidelines when a T/O is announced!

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I’m going for takeover post phase 2, so later in the year for me - I believe this was always the plan to realise value for NNZ-2591.

All depends on the offer though I guess.

NEU Price at posting: $8.94 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $19.30		Change -0.090(0.46%)		Mkt cap ! $2.466B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$19.55	$19.65	$18.88	$10.53M	549.5K

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4	4552	$19.15

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