I, personally, really don't think you should make the short...

I, personally, really don't think you should make the short position a big focus, for fear of following the wrong lead. Think of it as a magnifier, much as gearing (borrowing to invest) is. Whatever the correctness of the underlying decision (call) is it will be magnified by it.

Thus in order of importance of drivers of your assessment, I think they should be :
- The weighted prices of the REE's (Nd/Pr price may suffice as a shortcut).
- The prospects of the company itself. A mix of REE magnet materials and REE producer.

Just quietly, I see Li and spodumene due for a kicking. I distinguish REEs as ten times harder ( requiring 10 times more intellectual capital). As LiCO3, the former is just mine (dig) and HMS separate of float or both. The latter is full-on high-tech hydrometallurgical separation and challenging. Esp. in ASM and hard not to put too fine a point on it.

All IMVHO.
PS I might p-off some Li fans, but believe me I speak the truth regarding levels of difficulty.


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