Another Potential investment short scenario that could play...

Another Potential investment short scenario that could play out…

With regard to previous two capital raises. Management were very quick to allow insto’s the opportunity to buy these shares, at the expense of us retail shareholders (in my view, we are the sticky hands). We were told at the time, it was easier to sell to instos, and they were strategic?!?!

Now, with that in mind, the instos, would have a pretty clear understanding of the FID that was planned. Of course they did, as buying the huge amount of shares would have been conditional on understanding the company plans. This FID is information that we retail investors have not been clearly explained as yet (outside of that vague slideshow in mining presentations). The secrecy here stinks, and lack of transparency has not been decent to loyal shareholders.

So, next step, if there is a shortfall of funds from incoming offtake partners or enough cannot be raised from the debt club. Then, this may require a capital raise to help us get the $1.6M.

So, guess who gets to buy some shares at this current manipulated price? And it’s usually the instos…

As we know, there is no liquidity at this level, and if a capital raise is requested upfront from the debt club, the institutional power/ draw card will allow the instos once again be first option to take up shares at 23c/ less discount. Therefore the ability to fulfill their short sold quota. The short sold share of 135M shares could quite easily be resolved at this low share price…wouldn’t that be convenient?

This is just a scenario, but based on what I can see and the difficulty in the shorters ability to buy back shares at this price due to almost zero liquidity, they must be confident low cost shares can be purchased in the future through management.

It’s either or: the shorters are in a deep hole…and/or are going to take a hair cut, or have balls of steel to gamble that ARU is not successful, and/or they know management have them shares lined up in the future that they have an understanding they can purchase…

I hope I’m wrong, and am very happy to be wrong, but the slow attempt to close this deal in what is supposed to be ideal conditions, with very little public communication is quite disappointing, and the excuse of a ‘hold up’ is looking way beyond Europe’s summer holiday.

Yet the shorters remain confident, and so where is the ARU management nowadays? We often saw Gavin at a meeting/ drumming up business or marketing with some random podcast each fortnight….now, we have crickets!

I tell you one thing though, clear public communication puts an end to all these conspiracy theories. I see that as the underlying issue here…and two years of silence is starting to frustrate even the most patient.