If we had 63GW Wind, 6GW Rooftop, 26 GW Utility Solar distributed across the States and included the existing 11 GW of hydro we would require roughly 1,900 GWh's of storage.
The ANU model model uses an average capacity factor for wind of 41% and solar PV 23%.
The base case assumes 45 GW Installed Wind and 23 GW installed PV.
The storage calculated to balance load in the model is 490 GWh.
Actual:
Over the past 7 days the average capacity factor for wind was around 11%, Utility Solar 21% and rooftop solar 11%.
Calculating the difference Wind difference = 45 x (41%-11%) = 13.5 GW
Operating hours in week = 7 x 24 = 168
Wind variance = 13.5GW x 168 hours = 2,268 GWh’s Solar Difference = 23GW x (23% - 21%) = 0.46 GW
Operating hours in week = 168
Solar Variance = 0.46 GW x 168 hours = 77.74 GWh’s
Total deficit = 2,268 GWh’s + 77 GWh’s = 2,345 GWh’s
Less Storage Included = 490 GWh Total deficit = 1,855 GWh
As a guide here is the past weeks generation across the NEM (source opennem.org.au/#/all-regions) and the numbers on the right hand side give the GWh's for the 168 hour period.
Imo there is no way the numbers in the ANU study would work. The study is a good study and a good start to understanding the need to replace some of the existing coal fleet with reliable modern HELE plants quickly to reduce emissions and provide reliable supply for the next few decades. Alternatively we can just put band aids on the old clunkers and keep polluting. We are running out of time and are probably too late already but I am happy to be proved incorrect.
Bw to all
