made the time to look more closely at the ANU study, and you are correct re the 41% wind capacity factor, so I had a bit of a look into that below
but noting also they appear to have been pretty conservative on renewables prices, just using current prices, rather than anticipating expected further price reductions.
on the 41% wind capacity factor: a quick look around spotted these articles
https://reneweconomy.com.au/new-australian-wind-farms-reach-nearly-50-capacity-factor-99179/
that speaks for itself, but over a relatively short three month period, for two small farms totally 51MW
https://reneweconomy.com.au/australias-biggest-wind-farm-is-also-its-least-productive-88611/
was expected to produce 35%, but performing at more like 26% (or less with recent shutdown period)
but that's regarded as worst in Aus
that compared to an average existing Vic State wind capacity factor average that looks low 30's to a bit higher
the article talks also about
Stockyard Hill 530MW expected to reach 45% capacity factor
Hornsdale 309MW "in the 40's"
Collgar 207MW "mid to high 40's"
Silverton 450MW "expected around 44.5%"
Coopers Gap 460MW "around 35%"
and a table of existing SA wind farms averaging what looks to be like low 30's
that SA average is confirmed here
https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/capacity-factors-understanding-the-misunderstood/
which also indicates Tasmania wind capacity factor "reaching 37%"
That first link puts those newer stations hitting 40's and near the 50's due to "the development of wind turbines, which are getting bigger and more able to generate power at lower wind speeds" (as well as the quoted company's own wind tech).
So 41% going forward? May not be unreasonable?
