My analysis was focussed on identifying how much Installed capacity and storage would be required in the last week. The analysis is based on actual data which represents a diversified and interconnected grid as it incorporates all wind & solar in the NEM. Overall the capacity numbers were close to that in the other report but the storage is significantly higher. I believe the recent events will need to be addressed and when the ANU update there inputs they will increase the required capacity numbers or storage required, these changes will flow into costs and they will be much higher because of the waste in storage and decreased capacity factors.
There are limitations to any model, the main one in mine is that there is currently no operating WF in Qld and same for utility Solar in some of the lower states. In that respect I accept the numbers could be better or worse, it is really just a high level check.
The beauty of the ANU study is that they have outlined their key assumptions and that is to their credit because it enables people to challenge and learn. There are limitations to the study and again some of these are presented in the report.
Re numbers on the thread I don't believe there have been any shown that specifically address the problem's raised in the last week. I note also there hasn't been any critical review by the renewable industry which is poor form imo given the constant bagging given to the old coal plants.
On a positive note it looks like we should get some wind tomorrow which will be good.
Cheers
