Some of the changes since the publishing of the report were actually accounted for in the report namely;
"We have modeled a 1 year delay, assuming full production from 2016 (p3) We have modeled capex of US$3.8 bn which covers mine, rail and port, and opex of US$22/t pre-royalties (p8"
From the DFS, delays in production are not a fully year, the capex is now $4.6bn and opex is $21.20.
The recent capital raising and dilution was also forecast in the report;
"We also assume that a further US$250m equity is raised to cover the balance and contingencies. Overall our valuation is diluted to $0.81 next year, but still at a premium to the current shareprice. (p10)"
The actual raising was only $60m.
I would like to see another valuation conducted by SCE or similar, but the downside of the additional Capex is probably offset by the cheaper opex, the recent resource upgrade and the smaller dilution.
SDL Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
