sp predictions tomorrow, page-29

Not going to have a guess as this stock is too crazy, but here's a bit of information from the WHE thread taken from the company's Investor Relations Presentation - January 2007 that may help get some idea of the value of the project.

Note that this was prepared in Nov 2006 and valuations have moved up significantly since then - also I haven't verified the figures mentioned as it is too much work. Additionally, this is just one way of looking at it.

ASX Developers Average EV . pound JORC Resource: $8.10 / lb
ASX Producers Average EV / pound JORC Resource $13.30 / lb

Now, GDN will hold 30% ownership of the new company, but we don't know at this stage how much capital will be raised (although it will be greater than $10 m to cover the leases) and therefore how much cash will be in the bank and we don't know the terms that will be offered to existing shareholders to participate in the ipo.

So, assuming say an EV / pound of around $12 / lb (reasonably generous) the implied value to GDN could be:

1.9m lbs x 0.3 x $12/lb = $6.84 m + (30% of cash in bank) + (value attributed to favourable shareholder terms)

Otherwise could just take 10% (as a rough value estimate) of the resource:

1.9m lbs x 0.3 x US$113.00/lb x $A1.21256/$US x 0.1 = $7.8 m + (30% of cash in bank) + (value attributed to favourable shareholder terms)

As a rough check A$12/lb / (US$113/lb x $A1.21256/$US) = 8.75%, so fairly close assumptions.

Using a fully diluted market capitalisation (assuming the options get converted prior to expiry) the impact per share by these calcs is roughly (I'll assume a rough $10 m for the project):

$10 m / (154,806,304 + 32,154,206 + 17,700,000) = $0.048

This highlights to me is that the company will still be regarded as a gas play by the market, although the delay in trading has been quite beneficial imo - will be interested to see how it goes tomorrow.

If anyone has any other valuation opinions it would be much appreciated.

Cheers
SBC